Katusa Research · Market Sentiment
Shiller PE Ratio Today: CAPE Chart Back to 1871
S&P 500 price divided by ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Robert Shiller’s CAPE, updated monthly from his Yale dataset.
The Shiller PE stands at 41.4 as of July 2026. The only month in 155 years with a higher reading band was the dot-com peak, when CAPE touched 44.2 in December 1999.
For scale: the market paid 32.6 times cyclically adjusted earnings in September 1929. Today it pays 41.4.
| Reading | Value | When |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 41.37 | July 2026 |
| Record high | 44.20 | December 1999 |
| September 1929 peak | 32.56 | September 1929 |
| Record low | 4.78 | December 1920 |
| Average since 1881 | 17.8 | 145 years |
The Gauge
What CAPE Smooths Out
A regular PE ratio uses one year of earnings. One year can lie. Earnings collapse in recessions and balloon at cycle peaks, so the plain PE often looks cheapest right before trouble.
Shiller’s fix: average ten years of earnings and adjust them for inflation. The result strips out the business cycle and leaves the underlying price of a dollar of normalized profit. His broader work on asset prices won the Nobel in 2013.
Context
What a CAPE of 41 Means
The long-run average is 17.8. Today’s market trades at more than twice that. Readings this high have appeared exactly twice before: 1929 and the late 1990s. Both times, ten-year forward returns landed near zero.
CAPE says nothing about next quarter. It has been elevated for most of the past decade while the market kept climbing. What it prices is the next ten years, and at 41x it prices them thin.
Reading the Gauge
What a High or Low CAPE Means
Think of CAPE as the price of a dollar of normalized earnings. A low CAPE means stocks are cheap relative to what companies actually earn through a full cycle, and buying cheap has paid: the best ten-year runs in history started from single-digit and teen readings. A high CAPE means you’re paying up for the same earnings power, which has historically compressed the next decade’s returns toward zero.
| Range | What it means |
|---|---|
| Under 10 | Generational lows. 1920, 1932 and 1982 all bottomed here, each before a historic bull run. |
| 10 to 20 | Cheap to fair. The 145-year average is 17.8. |
| 20 to 30 | Elevated. Still workable, but forward returns thin out. |
| 30 to 40 | 1929 territory. The pre-crash peak was 32.6. |
| Over 40 ← TODAY | Dot-com peak zone. Only 1999-2000 (record 44.2) and today have traded here. |
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Shiller PE ratio today?
41.37 as of July 2026, against a 145-year average of 17.8.
What was the CAPE ratio in 1929?
It peaked at 32.6 in September 1929, right before the crash. Today’s reading is higher.
What is the highest Shiller PE ever recorded?
44.2, in December 1999 at the top of the dot-com bubble.
Is a high Shiller PE bad for stocks?
Not immediately. High CAPE readings have historically meant weak returns over the following decade, not an imminent crash. The market spent most of the 2010s above average and kept rising.
Why use CAPE instead of the regular PE ratio?
One year of earnings swings with the business cycle, so the plain PE can look cheap at exactly the wrong moment. Ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings smooth that cycle out.
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This page is for information only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy any security. Data comes from public sources and can contain errors or delays. Do your own research before you invest.
