Katusa Research · Market Sentiment
Buffett Indicator Today: Live Chart and Current Reading
Total US corporate equity value divided by GDP, from Federal Reserve data. Warren Buffett once called it the best single measure of where valuations stand.
The Buffett Indicator sits at 218% as of Q1 2026. That’s down from a record 228.7% the quarter before, and roughly triple the long-run average of 86%.
At the 1982 market bottom, this gauge read 32%. Stocks then returned close to 18% a year for nearly two decades.
| Reading | Value | When |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 218.1% | Q1 2026 |
| Record high | 228.7% | Q4 2025 |
| Dot-com era | 162.6% | Q1 2000 |
| Record low | 32.2% | Q2 1982 |
| Average since 1947 | 86.1% | 79 years |
The Gauge
What the Buffett Indicator Measures
The math is simple. Take the value of all US corporate equities, then divide by GDP. Stocks are claims on the economy’s future output. When their price runs far ahead of the economy itself, you’re paying more for every dollar of underlying activity.
Buffett told Fortune in 2001 that this ratio is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” He also warned that buying near 200% is playing with fire.
Methodology
How We Calculate It
We divide the Federal Reserve’s measure of corporate equities (Z.1 financial accounts, series NCBEILQ027S) by nominal GDP. Both series come from FRED and update quarterly. Some sites use the Wilshire 5000 as the numerator instead. The signal is the same either way.
Context
What 218% Has Meant Before
History is blunt here. The gauge crossed 163% at the top of the dot-com bubble in early 2000. A 49% drawdown in the S&P 500 followed. It bottomed near 32% in 1982, right before the strongest bull market of the century.
Today’s reading is far above both. One honest caveat: US companies earn more abroad than they did in 1982, so the ratio drifts higher over time. Even adjusting for that, 218% is extreme by any historical yardstick.
Reading the Gauge
What a High or Low Buffett Indicator Means
A low ratio means the stock market is small next to the economy that feeds it: you’re buying future output cheap, and the decades that followed low readings were the best in market history. A high ratio means prices have run far ahead of production. Every dollar of GDP is carrying more market value, and forward returns from high readings have been thin to negative.
| Range | What it means |
|---|---|
| Under 80% | Cheap. The 1982 low of 32% preceded an 18-year bull market. |
| 80% to 120% | Fair value. Most of market history lives here. |
| 120% to 140% | Rich. Returns from here have historically come in below average. |
| 140% to 200% | Bubble territory. The dot-com mania peaked near 163%. |
| Over 200% ← TODAY | Uncharted. Buffett called buying here “playing with fire.” Today: 218%. |
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Buffett Indicator right now?
218.1% as of Q1 2026. The record is 228.7%, set in Q4 2025.
What is a good Buffett Indicator reading?
The long-run average since 1947 is about 86%. Readings under 100% have historically marked fair to cheap markets. Above 140% put you in dot-com peak territory, and today’s market trades well beyond that.
How is the Buffett Indicator calculated?
Total US corporate equity value divided by nominal GDP. We use Federal Reserve Z.1 data for the numerator and BEA GDP for the denominator, both via FRED, updated quarterly.
Does a high Buffett Indicator mean a crash is coming?
No. It is a valuation gauge, not a timing tool. Markets stayed expensive for years in the late 1990s and again after 2020. What high readings have reliably predicted is weak returns over the following decade, not the date the weakness starts.
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This page is for information only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy any security. Data comes from public sources and can contain errors or delays. Do your own research before you invest.
