Here’s what you need to know right now…
- Copper’s price spike past $5: Tariff threats, U.S. hoarding, and Chile’s slump fuel a fierce price surge.
- A frantic global scramble: Asia ships out across the ocean, America pays a premium, and China restocks—squeezing supplies worldwide.
- Historic profit window: Past squeezes triggered 100%+ rallies; this new wave could be even more explosive.
Copper prices just surged to generational highs.
And if you looked only at the usual suspects: inflation, interest rates, or global GDP, you’d probably scratch your head.
But peel back the layers, and you’ll find a fiery mix of global supply shifts, consumer demand surprises, and political spice that’s driving this rally.
Today we’ll break it down in simple terms… since copper is one of the most important metals of the economy and the future.
And investors can make a lot of money in volatile copper stocks and discoveries.
U.S. Copper Prices BLOW Past $5
Let’s start with what everyone’s talking about: the price.
Copper has been climbing steadily since the start of the year, but it’s the spread between U.S. (Comex) and global (LME) prices that’s really turning heads.
- The front-month Comex copper contract (the U.S. benchmark) has officially pulled ahead of the London Metal Exchange (LME) contract.
This divergence is loud and clear on the below chart. U.S. copper is trading well above $5/lb, while LME is hovering around $4.60/lb.
Why the gap? Traders are spotting a price premium in the U.S. and sending copper there to cash in.
Copper is Flowing INTO America…
The Comex copper inventory tells a big part of the story.
Inventories in CME warehouses have jumped to over 85,000 metric tons in recent weeks, more than doubling since September 2024.
That means copper is arriving fast. The reason is that U.S. copper prices are high enough to attract metal from overseas. There’s money to be made shipping refined copper from Asia or Europe into the States.
But this inflow isn’t just a trader trick, there’s also real fear underneath.
Enter: Tariff 2.0
The rally accelerated sharply after the President hinted at a new round of reciprocal tariffs on foreign metals. While copper has not been officially named, traders are pricing in the risk that it could be included.
On April 2, 2025, the administration confirmed its intent to pursue these tariffs, though full details and scope remain pending.
Markets love certainty and hate tariffs.
The risk of added costs on imported copper has prompted U.S. buyers to build up stockpiles. Better to lock in inventory now than pay a premium later.
That kind of proactive hoarding behavior adds pressure to an already tight market and sends prices soaring even faster.
- Goldman Sachs analysts previously expected a 25% copper tariff between September and November, but now say it may be imposed earlier.
As a result, they anticipate the current 17% gap between Comex and LME prices could widen even further.
Meanwhile, LME Inventories Are Shrinking…
The next chart highlights an interesting move…
Its large requests to withdraw copper from LME warehouses in Asia have exploded to their highest level in years.
- These spikes signal a rapid movement of copper out of global storage
And it’s likely headed toward higher-priced destinations like the U.S., resulting in global supply tightness.
He Who Holds the Copper Makes the Rules…
Now flip the coin: while the U.S. is stockpiling, global copper inventories are thinning out.
LME copper inventory has dropped below 250,000 metric tons.
Asia in particular is seeing a dramatic spike in withdrawal requests. Traders are yanking copper out of LME warehouses because of the tariff threat.
The large price gap between London and New York triggered a global rush to move copper to the U.S. for higher premiums, leaving other markets—especially top consumer China—short of supply.
China’s Surprise Consumer Comeback
China’s copper story is heating up from both ends— demand and supply.
On one hand, Chinese consumers are bouncing back: After months of gloomy headlines, retail sales in China jumped sharply over the past two months. Add some seasonal restocking by manufacturers, and the world’s top copper consumer is stirring again.
On the other hand, a surge in requests to pull copper out of LME warehouses in Asia is grabbing attention.
This double whammy of rising Chinese demand and falling Asian inventory is tightening the global copper pool. And that’s putting even more heat under prices.
Chilean Supply is Slipping
On the supply side, Chile is to copper what Saudi Arabia is to oil and it’s seeing a bit of a stumble.
Chile’s copper export has been declining since December 2024, suggesting less volume hitting global markets.
Whether it’s due to lower ore grades, weather, labor unrest, or operational hiccups, the result is the same: the largest source of copper isn’t exporting like it used to.
And when Chile sneezes, the copper market catches a cold.
Copper’s current surge isn’t built on hype—it’s backed by real movement.
Whether you’re a trader, policymaker, or just curious about where the world’s most important metal is heading, the story boils down to four main factors:
1. Tariff Fear – New U.S. tariffs could raise copper costs overnight, so buyers are stockpiling now.
2. Surging U.S. Demand – America’s market is offering a premium price, pulling copper inventories from abroad.
3. Chile’s Declining Exports – The largest copper producer isn’t meeting global needs, tightening supply even more.
4. China’s Restock – The world’s top copper consumer has snapped back, fueling new demand and pulling metal out of LME warehouses in Asia.
These forces have combined to push copper prices to their highest level in almost a year—and this setup could keep driving them higher.
But that’s only half the story.
I’ve identified a critical copper region—one that hasn’t been this tight in years.
- The last time a similar situation played out in this region, shareholders saw gains of over 200% when a buyout was announced at $45 per share.
I’m betting with my own money that the major operator will move to consolidate its position before that window closes.
To get the name and ticker symbol of this opportunity, plus my detailed analysis, consider signing up for my premium research service.
It’s called Katusa’s Resource Opportunities, and the next issue is published on April 2nd.
Regards,
Marin Katusa
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